Moses Madondo, CEO of De Beers Group Managed Operations, recently shared his opinion that the global supply of natural diamonds has peaked.
Speaking at the Joburg Indaba, a resources and mining conference in South Africa, Madondo outlined the ongoing reduction in diamond production and warned that no major new deposits are expected. “We must recognise that we are already past the peak for diamond supply. Despite extensive exploration, only one commercial discovery – the Luele mine in Angola – has been made in the twenty-first century,” he said on the second day of the conference on 4 October.
Production Decline and Market Impact
“The broader outlook indicates a decline in global diamond production. While this may create supply pressures, it offers price growth potential,” Madondo said, explaining that reduced availability is likely to influence prices. He noted that only one commercial diamond discovery has been made in the 21st century—the Luele mine in Angola, which is expected to start production by the 2030s. However, the closure of mines, including Canada’s Diavik mine by 2026, will reduce supply further, with additional impacts from Russian mines.
This production decline is expected to happen in stages. Initially, there will be an immediate reduction caused by mine closures and production cuts due to difficult market conditions. Following a short-term increase in supply by 2026, with operations like the Venetia mine in South Africa transitioning to underground mining, another decline is expected after 2028. This will see production decreasing by around 1% annually through to 2040. Although restarts at Russia’s Mir mine and the ramp-up at Botswana’s Jwaneng underground mine may mitigate some of these declines, the overall trend remains downward.
Shift to Lab-Grown Diamonds
With natural diamond supply diminishing, De Beers is placing greater emphasis on lab-grown diamonds (LGDs), but not for the jewellery market. “We will be veering away from producing LGDs for the jewellery market and instead focus on highly engineered synthetic diamonds for industrial and technological applications, such as space exploration technology and supercomputer components,” Madondo stated. This marks a notable change in strategy as De Beers looks to broaden its involvement in non-jewellery sectors.
Madondo also highlighted the growing price divergence between natural diamonds and LGDs. “The price of a 2 ct natural diamond has seen a 1% year-on-year growth, while the price of a 2 ct LGD has dropped by 25% in retail and 36% at the wholesale level,” he noted. As natural diamonds become more scarce and LGD production increases, jewellers can expect a clearer distinction between these two product categories.
Diamond Authentication Technology
Addressing concerns over distinguishing between natural and lab-grown diamonds, Madondo reaffirmed the reliability of De Beers’ existing detection technology. “I should also debunk the myth that the difference between LGDs and natural diamonds cannot be told. It definitely can be told,” he said, stressing that De Beers’ detection instruments have a 0% false positive rate.
De Beers is also working on a consumer-friendly version of its verification technology. “We launched the prototype, called Diamond Proof, at the JCK show in Las Vegas. We are aiming to make those available for purchase by May 2025,” Madondo shared, adding that there is already considerable interest in the product. This tool could play an important role in helping jewellers maintain transparency and trust with consumers regarding the authenticity of natural diamonds.
